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英国论文代写范文精选-Effect of exchange rate changes on the bank's share price

2016-06-21 | 来源:51Due教员组 | 类别:更多范文

51Due英国论文代写网精选assignment代写范文:“Effect of exchange rate changes on the bank's share price”,这篇论文讨论了人民币汇率变动对银行股价格的影响。随着我国对外的不断深化改革,外汇市场的框架已初步形成,人民币汇率变动对经济的影响日益明显,投资者对外部汇率的变化也越来越重视。股票作为资本市场的一个组成部分,具有融资、优化资源配置等作用,对经济发展起着非常重要的作用。

With China's external exchange system reform deepening, the external exchange market framework has been formed, external exchange rate changes impact on the national economy has become increasing obvious, of all kinds of financial instruments in financial market prices also has certain influence, and investors are more and more attention to the change of external exchange rate.

The stock market as an integral part of capital market, has the effect such as financing, optimizing the allocation of resources, play an important role to the economic development. As general economic theory implies, the price of stock is a statistics banner which can intuitively manifest a country’s economic condition, such as economic development stage, capital supply and demand, market conditions, industry prospect and the change of political situation.

The study which focuses on the RMB exchange rate and the stock price therefore has realistic meanings as well as theoretical ones, especially in the current economic situation which the RMB appreciation pressure are increasing and the stock market are fluctuating constantly.

The concern of stock price change that is partly caused by external exchange rate change can remind people to think more about the negative and predictable impacts of external exchange and the risks of stock market bankruptcy, and somehow arouse the risk prevention consciousness. Generally speaking, the external exchange and the internal stock market, both of which have significant influences on the development of the financial market, even on the national entire economy prospect. Since 1970s, most country began to replace the fixed exchange system by the floating exchange system, making external exchange market and internal stock market attached to each other more tightly.

The study of the connection between the external exchange rate and the internal stock market has become a hot spot to the academicians. China implemented a fixed exchange rate system and dual exchange rate system before 1994.The policy made the RMB exchange rate get attached to the US dollar persistently and the strict foreign exchange controls cut the connection between China's exchange rates and stock prices artificially.

It was on July 21st , 2005, the Chinese government had their exchange rate system reformed that the era of floating exchange rate system came into working. And from then on, the RMB exchange rate began to fluctuate refer to market supply and demand. Mechanism exchange rate in China was then gradually formed and as China's share reform continued and financial capital project gradually got liberalized, the external exchange market and internal stock market began to show their corresponding interaction, in which they got closed through the conduction effects of macroeconomic variables.

The consciousness of the interactive relationship between the internal stock market and external exchange market is beneficial to the precaution of external exchange risk and will help promote the formation of China's exchange rate mechanism and maintain financial market and macroeconomic stability, having a strong practical significance. Take the theory of the external exchange rate and internal stock price as a foundation, this dissertation is adopting normative analysis and empirical analysis method of combining the research of the relationship between external exchange rate and bank stock price.

First of all, using relevant theories and research results made by scholars in different regions, the essay discusses the basic theory of external exchange rate and stock prices. Then through the international capital flow, international trade, interest rate, the company's performance and expectations between external exchange rate and stock price impact analysis process, by using the software of measurement Eviews 6.0 on RMB exchange rate parity, the daily data for bank stock prices for empirical research of these variables.

Through the unit root test, cointegration test, granger causality test, vector error correlation model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, verify the correlation of the RMB exchange rate and stock price accord with theoretical analysis, finally put forward the improvement suggestions based on the practical observation. The basic conclusions of this paper are as the following:

The exchange rate will affect stock price by international capital, international trade, interest rates, the company's performance, psychological expectations. As the RMB is appreciating, a long-term international capital flow on Chinese stock market and economic development has a positive role.

When time extends, the connection between external exchange rates and the bank's share price have stable cointegration, in the short run, they both have the bidirectional granger causality. In the long run, when there is appreciation of the RMB, price of bank shares goes up. For a long time, the appreciation of RMB will be beneficial to the development of our commercial bank business, and finally caused commercial Banks' share prices. Between different types of Banks, the RMB external exchange rate shows certain differences on the impact of stock price. Granger causality test results show that the external exchange rate and bank shares are a two-way causal relationship.

Lag of RMB nominal exchange rate with an inverse relationship between bank stock prices, the empirical results of Error correction model shows that in the short term, the appreciation of the RMB will help stock price to go up, on the other hand, the depreciation of bank shares prices help to fall. d. Exchange rate volatility has a certain impact on the prices of bank shares. Impulse analysis and variance decomposition show that the fluctuation of external exchange rate has nothing to do with the price of banks shares. It does not accord with long term equilibrium condition; it can use the monetary policy in China to explain this phenomenon.

When RMB appreciates, in order to prevent economic overheating and inflation, the central bank uses tighten monetary policy in the reverse operation, higher interest rates, which can lead to share price drop. So that in the short term, the currency has cast poison on the bank's share price, the exchange rate for the contribution rate of share price movements showed a trend of increase after decreases contribution rate between 1% and 17%, and there is a long-term and stable effect. The policy suggestions of this paper are as the following:

To perfect the exchange system, improve the RMB exchange rate functioning. Release normal to written demand, can eliminate long foreign exchange supply infinite expansion, the negative impact of unlimited increase in external exchange reserves, so as to reduce the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB.

The government needs to establish capital flow to the dynamic monitoring and early warning mechanism, try to maintain the stable and orderly situation of the domestic financial market. As the RMB appreciating, arbitrage and speculative capital arbitrage frequenting will cause the volatility of the securities market, establish a complete set of domestic securities market on the international capital amount of monitoring and early warning mechanism, effective regulation of the securities market is advantageous to the financial authorities.

Guide the reasonable expectations. Psychological expectations factors effect on the external exchange market and the internal stock market is becoming more and more obvious, China should increase the degree of information disclosure for ordinary investors and corporate investors, cultivate a correct investment idea, make it to our country foreign exchange market and stock market have an accurate understanding and even the whole economy, and form a reasonable expectations, improve the correlation of the external exchange market and internal stock market.

Investors should remake their financial strategies, increase of exchange rate volatility risk awareness, reasonable to make investment decisions.

Bank managers should be quickly identify the fluctuation of foreign exchange risk in a timely and effective manner, to establish the compliance risk prevention system, actively respond to fluctuations and its impact on the bank's share price. Commercial Banks must strengthen the exchange rate risk consciousness, to guard against exchange rate risks on the agenda.

Chinese commercial banks should pay attention to the current exchange rate risk, firmly establish a modern bank risk management consciousness, always adhere to the safety, liquidity and profitability of commercial Banks operating principles of organic unity.

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