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英国留学作业代写|住宅价格的变化及未来市场预测

2017-02-07 | 来源:51due教员组 | 类别:更多范文

本文是英国留学作业代写精选范文:“住宅价格的变化及未来市场预测”,主要内容是研究英国房价,及影响英国房价走势的主要因素,通过英国市民的购买数据分析,对英国房地产市场未来进行预测。

House prices as a fact are amiably mostly dependent on the supply and demand factors prevailing as per the current situation in the market and the likelihood of increase or decrease or invariably other factors which determine the prices to fall or to rise despite the curb in the supply or demand.


The most favourable factors undermining the rise or fall in the UK housing industry preferably depends on both factors which we are discussing in the below facts and figures amicably effecting the UK mortgage industry.


Steep downfall in the prices of the houses in the recent past could be adjudged as a combination of both recession and the rising unemployment. Recent figures have shown that most of the UK citizens or domiciles have returned to their homes to live with their family already residing in the UK, where the average living cost per individual increased compared to the earnings ratio, which also had a negative impact on the prices.


Let us first lay some emphasis on the demand side factors in comparison to the figures for last three years.


2. The factors effecting the house price values in uk for the last three years 近三年来英国市房价影响因素的影响因素分析


2.1. Real Income/Economic Growth


Increase in income capacities will help enable people to increase the cost on spending more for buying a property or a house. Initially the rising income capacities would impact the mortgage price by x3 of your original earned income. Basically, if your annual earnings in a financial year work out to be nearly £30000, the building societies would be lending about £90000 for your mortgage.


This factor also raises the suspicion on the analytics as to despite the fact that house prices have doubled in the past 5 years why are they still affordable?


This is because of the House prices to incomes ratio, which would entail the common phenomenon as to how the income levels affect the increase in the house prices.


2.2. Interest rates.


The rate of interest varies with the different lenders and ultimately it affects the total cost bearing the payment for a mortgage. As mortgage payments form the biggest share of their monthly share for any homeowner interest rates form a very distinct factor and play an important role for a middle-income household earner.


From UK's economic view of standpoint, mortgages form an integral part of the UK economy in terms of capital income, growth, and market share. The majority of mortgagors in UK have a common product called the variable mortgage which is directly proportional where the interest rates rises which will in turn causes the mortgages to rise, intimidating the people to buy the houses.


The committee which sets the base rates is the Bank of England, which usually affects all the commercial interest rates for both commercial and industrial sectors on the financial front.


2.3. Consumer assurance


During the phase between the years 2001-2007, where there were 100% mortgages and


interest-only mortgages were very common, but people insisted on getting a mortgage with higher debt to their individual income or jointincome ratio. It was a risky factor for observance for both banks and the consumers, but people were optimistic about the housing markets during that tenure of time.


2.4. Availability of Finance for Mortgage:


While in the years 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, it was found that there was rigorous restrictions imposed on the availability of money or finance for mortgages. However, due to the fact that there was a deregulation of both the finance and the banking sector which aggravated the fierce competition led to the rise in the number of products offered by the banks, financial institutions, and building societies for mortgages. There were many products available in the market such as mortgage interest-only, self-certification mortgages, and mortgages up to 6 times income were more prevalent thereby enhancing the demand for housing. However, due to the recent recession of 2008, most of the financial products or mortgage products which were on offer fell drastically leading to shortage of money in the market.


2.5. Demographic factors:


It was found to be a very constant rise in number of households in United Kingdom. The current population is less than the number of households and if there is an average calculated in each instance, it would result that more single people are living alone on their own, so this factor resembles many other reasons which could impact both the households and the family members. Some of the reasons are more people coming in as immigrants from eastern European countries.


The second reason is most likely to be the number of people getting divorced thereby increasing the number of households with single person living alone.


2.6. Speculation:


There is an increasing rate of mortgage products to suit different group of individuals depending on their preferences and income levels. In today's economy not every individual has the will and potential to buy the houses. The individuals who invest in the house property try to make the profit by renting the property. They usually invest when the rates or prices of the property increases and sells the property when the market is about to take a turn. But buying a property involves the costs like estate agents fee, stamp duty, registration fees etc.


Prices of rented property: In the past few years the prices of renting the houses has increased rapidly which has in turn increased the demand for the individuals to but the property and rent them which is a reserve to gain profits. Individuals buy houses or mortgage them and later they rent the property.


2.7. Inherited Wealth:


Most of the households would buy houses with the wealth which has been inherited by them. This also would explain as to why there is a rise in the ratio of house prices to income levels. Nowadays, it is quite a common practice for most of the parents to lend some deposits for their children when they are buying new properties or houses for the first time.


2.8. Unemployment:


People are earning enough to invest in property as buying a property is a mode of saving where in they have the option of renting or selling if needed


2.9. Supply side factors:


Looking from a short run perspective supply of housing is most probably is assumed as fixed, because it takes a while to build houses. After analyzing it is deemed to be concluded that in the short run the affect of demand on prices is more often more than supply.


However, if supply of housing does not return to its incorporate its strategy of adopting to new changes and if it is inelastic in nature then however it is more likely that an increase in the demand factor will most often lead to a big hike in the prices of housing.


Long run supply:


When looking into the long run supply, there are many factors which can affect and be an obstacle in the process of supply. To construct the houses or flats or a building, the first thing is to take the permission or check the availability to construct the property. This could be tough in rural areas as it is not easy to get the permission.


Builders usually have to calculate the opportunity costs, if it is better to invest in some other areas. They will have to check the total costs and returns which they may get once the property is sold.


3. Analyzing the house prices figures:房价数据分析:


The below figures best illustrate the graphs which defines the rise and fall in the housing prices during the last three years, which apparently were the cause after recession and mainly due to unemployment.


Due to recession, many market leaders being it retail industry, banking, or IT companies went into liquidation or administration, following shortage of money in the money market. Accumulating all the facts and analyzing the causes there was a steep rise in unemployment and all the companies adopted the policy of redundancy to safeguard their reputation and stand in the market, which started causing the houses to go on sale. Sub-prime mortgage lending was one of the major drawbacks for all the banks and financial institutions, which reflected lack of stronghold on the banks credit analyzing capabilities and the poor judgement of lending to people who cannot afford to keep their monthly mortgage payments.


In the year January 2007 the house prices began to increase until January 2008, after which the average house prices slowly started to creep down. The average house price in the month of January 2007 was £173,665 with a monthly change of 1.1% and an annual change of 8.2%. The price index was increasing till the January 2008 with average house price of £183,845 with a monthly change of 0.5% and an annual change of 5.9%.


From the month of January 2008 the house prices began to crash to a little low and in the month of January 2009 the average house price was £156,894 with a monthly change of -0.5% and an annual change of -14.7% which was the biggest since January 1996, which had a similar annual change of -3.9%.


When coming to the house sales volumes, it is quite obvious when the house prices increase there would be very few people who would be looking to buy houses or new properties, due to which the banks had to bring some new market products for mortgages such as the self certification mortgages, which allowed the people to self-certify their income levels when they want to purchase the houses. The other type of mortgage was 100% mortgage with no deposits required as a security to the banks.


As the graph below depicts the decline in curve in the sales figures for the year 2007-2008 until January 2009 because of the rise in house prices, which was not quite common, but it slowly started to increase from January 2009 which also increased the volumes for sales bringing some relief to the money market, thereby pumping the flow of cash for trade market and the shares business, which helped the markets to confront their stability and market hold.


After analyzing the above facts and figures the conclusion would be that recession had a very huge impact in the money market, which influenced the whole industry of mortgages, with decline in the house prices affecting the most of the UK economy which is mostly dependent on the mortgage business.


The most affected group of people who were impacted by this, were the ones' most likely who are unemployed, single living, aged people, divorced, or young people who left their homes to settle down early in their lives.


4. PREDICTION:预测:


As per the current trend there is a slight rise in the housing prices index and market is slowing gaining the momentum of getting into the process of selling and buying the houses, but as a precautionary the banks, building societies, and the financial institutions are very cautious in the lending process, where most of them are seeking to have maximum deposits for any houses which are being sold. In the near future within three years time it can be predicted that the market would rise with the increase in the house prices, but there would be very less households which would go for residential properties and would opt for commercial buy-to-let properties thereby the borrower will not suffer in most of the cases of missing their monthly instalments and there is less probability of any borrower defaulting on any mortgage payments or any other credit facilities given by the banks and other financial institutions.


This would be the right move for any new home buyers or investors to apply for mortgages as the price of houses would deem to rise in the near future and making most of the profits for the capital invested. As the UK economy is mostly dependent on the mortgage business it would be the right option for people from different global locations to invest in the properties to reap the benefits, but keeping in mind the activities in the money market and the shares business which are interdependent and could create rise or fall in the business trend.


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