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Real estate project risk management theory-经济学作业代写

2017-03-22 | 来源:51due教员组 | 类别:更多范文

经济学作业代写范文精选:“Real estate project risk management theory”,本文主要讲述到住房关乎到人们的生活幸福,房地产业是我国非常重要的支柱产业之一,在国民经济发展中占据着重要的地位。本文从房地产开发风险类型分析入手,对项目风险管理问题进行了分析和研究。


Introduction of real estate development project risk management is a core part of the real estate development and project management, risk management, real estate research reviewed current situation at home and abroad, help us to understand the development trend of the real estate risk management and research trend imputation domestic and foreign real estate risk management methods to help qualitative and quantitative analysis of the combination, more targeted and more scientific analysis of real estate risk management status and causes, and lay a solid foundation for further study in the real estate risk management. 

1. Type of real estate development venture called real estate project risk refers to a variety of factors can affect the development of profits in real estate development activities, and the impact of these factors are usually very difficult to predict and control, so that their profits may be lower than the actual development expected profits, resulting in financial losses business opportunities and increased risk. 

Risk of real estate development projects generated by source classification, can be summarized into four types: man-made risks, economic risks, natural risks and unforeseen risks. 

1.1 anthropogenic risk of human risk is involved in a variety of risks due to the project personnel subjective reasons caused. The common feature of these risks are associated with people's thoughts and behavior related to, but its manifestations and scope vary. To sum up, the main source of human risk in the following areas: organizational risk, human resource risk, contract management risk, moral hazard, the Contractor performance risk, the risk of design errors, supervising engineer liability risks, material supplier performance risk, political and legal risk. 

1.2 Economic risks are generally the case, the economic risks faced by real estate developers have the following main reasons: 

1. macroeconomic policy risk. Real estate development companies most directly affect fiscal policy and monetary policy, will have a direct impact on the real estate development and sales.

2. Investment environmental risks. The investment environment is an important factor related to the success of the project, such as funding sources, market conditions and other sales. 

3. financing difficulties. Tightening bank lending and land transfer gold to pay the new policy, leaving the developer worse. We can say that this year, the developer suffered a winter financing. 

The market supply and demand. Market supply and demand means that supply and demand risk development projects in the area real estate market caused sales to developers risk. 

1.3 Natural risk Natural risk is the threat area project objective existence of the natural environment, adverse weather conditions during the development of real estate projects that may be encountered, or location of the project site conditions and other factors to the surrounding environment posed by the project owner. 

Real Estate Project location natural environment a great impact on the project implementation, in different regions of different natural conditions, natural disaster-prone areas will undoubtedly increase the risk of the owners. Natural factors typically include fires, floods, earthquakes, storms and other unforeseen risks unforeseen 1.4 means no significant risk due to the early signs are not aware of the project implementation caused by the process of facing the unexpected. These risks include: the design and development stage unforeseen risks, project construction stage unforeseen risks, risks faced by the project sales phase, other unforeseen risks. 

2. The basic process of risk identification estate project risk management 2.1 real estate project risk identification real estate project has its own characteristics: dynamic, systematic, informative and comprehensive. 

Risk identification methods include five categories: Delphi analysis, scenario analysis, brainstorming analysis, SWOT analysis, flow chart analysis. 

1. Delphi analysis. The main content is the use of practical experience and theoretical knowledge of the relevant experts in the field of risk identification, perception issues raised by several rounds of questionnaire survey of experts, after repeated consultation, summarize, modify, and finally rolled into the basic consensus of experts, as predicted As a result, it is also known expert opinion focused method. 

2. brainstorming analysis, also known as intellectual stimulation method, this method is by expert creative ideas to get the next one visual identification method information. Brainstorming can be divided into brainstorming and reverse brainstorming. The former is the decision by the expert group as much as possible to stimulate creativity, to create as many methods or means, the latter is the program presented by one of the former question, analyzed its practical program. 

3. scenario analysis. Through analysis of the surrounding environment, identifying external factors affecting the main theme of development or research on the assumption that the main factors occur, construct a variety of scenarios, and then use a chart or graph and other forms of development of the project carry out the scenario depicted, present the results of a variety of possible, in order to take appropriate measures to prevent the occurrence of risk. 

The flow chart analysis. Flowchart method is vividly described as a continuous process flow chart of an activity, and later by identifying the key processes of risk identification method is a method of identifying potential risks of enterprise dynamic analysis. 

5.SWOT analysis. Analyzed according to their own internal conditions established to identify business advantages and disadvantages as well as opportunities and threats lie, SWOT analysis is usually carried out research at some point on the internal and external factors, then S, W, O, T analysis, so as to form four kinds of strategies. 

2.2 Real Estate Project Risk Assessment Risk assessment methods usually fall into three categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative, qualitative and quantitative, general project risk assessment methodology will adopt a systems approach combining qualitative and quantitative. Real estate project risk assessment methods commonly used subjective scoring, break even analysis, decision tree method, AHP, fault tree analysis method. 

1. subjective scoring. By expert professional knowledge and experience to judge subjectively derived risk score for each project, and its giving appropriate weight, such as scores from 0-10 scoring. 10 represents the greatest risk, with 0 being no risk, then the value is multiplied by the weight of each risk weight to give risk values for the individual risks, and finally add the values of each risk risk of getting value of the project, and then compared with the risk assessment value Analysis. 

2. Break even analysis. The so-called break even analysis is an analytical method to analyze the changes in the real estate development projects the ability to adapt to market demand and supply by calculating the break even point. Find the break even point is key to the process, if you find a real estate development project is to achieve such a sales profit that is the point zero. 

3. Decision Tree. Decision tree analysis is a tree diagram used to describe the computing programs in future earnings. The main features of the project according to risk, the risk assessment project need to show the background of the project risk, while also describe the dynamic development projects likelihood of risk occurrence, the extent of losses and risks of the project. It circles and boxes for the nodes, a tree-shaped structure formed by a straight line connecting. 

The AHP. AHP method that can not be quantified risk indicators in accordance with the size of the risk carried out the order of their relative quantification, first determine the objectives of the project evaluation, and then determine the guidelines for project evaluation. According to the evaluation objectives, evaluation criteria structure hierarchical structure model. Then using pairwise comparison method to construct all relevant judgment matrix to determine the relative importance of the project risk objectives. Finally, so to calculate the integrated importance. 

5. Fault Tree Analysis. It uses a logical way, the image for risk analysis work, which features an intuitive, clear, clear thinking, logical, can do qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis can be done. 

2.3 real estate project risk response risk response is based on a risk assessment, the project manager of the project risks and potential losses that may exist have a full understanding of project risks and select the appropriate effective strategy, and to develop control measures in line with the actual situation of the project, the prevention and control of risk, trying to avoid or mitigate the negative impact of the risk posed by that project to achieve maximum security in the implementation process. Risk response measures are the following: 

1. Risk aversion risk aversion strategy is the probability due to the potential threat of a large real estate development projects take place, a great impact on the project, when the risk can be eliminated or at risk of the condition by changing the project plan to achieve a risk-averse kind of strategy. 

2. Risk transfer by way of transfer of real estate projects, there are two risks. First, the financial risk transfer insurance class. Second, non-insurance financial risk transfer. 

3. The main objective risk total risk-sharing is to take place first before some of the risks they are divided into several parts, so that a third party if and bear part of the risk. This strategy is a strategy to reduce risk and profit at the same time. 

4. Risk mitigation risk mitigation strategy is to predict or mitigate through other means to reduce the likelihood of occurrence or mitigate losses, so as to achieve the purpose of risk reduction. 

5. Risk Acceptance Risk Acceptance also called risk retention refers to the owner of the project to bear the risk of loss caused. Obviously that the probability is very small, very small losses and risks caused by the most appropriate risk acceptance policies. 

3. The primary goal of the real estate project risk management objectives real estate project risk management is risk management and control of real estate projects to prevent and reduce the losses caused by the risks and ensure the smooth implementation of real estate projects. 

Target real estate project risk management is generally divided into two parts: one is in front of the goal losses, the other part is the target, causing losses. Both together, they form a complete real estate project risk management objectives. Project risk management objectives must be consistent with the overall objective of the overall goal of real estate projects and real estate companies, must be consistent with the real estate projects and real estate business-specific properties and the environment. 

Real estate project risk management objective is to avoid the loss or reduction prior losses, are: (1) cost savings; (2) to ensure legal; (3) to ensure the safety of construction; (4) social responsibility. 

After the loss goal was to save and maximize the impact of compensation for losses and consequences. Real estate project risk management in the target after the loss occurred mainly: (l) survival; (2) to maintain a normal real estate projects continue to run; and (3) to achieve stable earnings; (4) to achieve the goal of sustainable growth; (5) social responsibility. 

With the emerging scientific theory and methods, people's awareness of the risks will continue to increase capacity, will continue to use more effective methods to study risks, awareness and research on real estate project risk investment needs further. On this basis, the response will be constantly updated, and fully reflects the importance and advantages of risk management. 


References 

[1] Gobo, Gong rain, Tan Yuntao Project risk management [M]. Electronics Industry Publishing House (2008) 

[2] Wang away, Chun Yue Project Risk Management [M] Beijing: China Water Power Press, 2008 

[3] Dan Zhanshan Risk Management Quality Engineering [J]. Management of the Road 2009 


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