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2016-12-01 | 来源:51due教员组 | 类别:更多范文


Contemporary art in China has recently grown to be one of the most exciting cultural developments in Asia and now plays an important role in the international art world. The past thirty years of development in China have wrought tremendous changes to both the social environment and the economy, with the result that Chinese Contemporary Art has changed greatly over time as well. The market for Chinese contemporary art gained enormous growth and is the most sought-after form of contemporary art in the world. In 2010, China had a Fine Art annual revenue total of $3 billion in contemporary art sales, making it number one in the world.

After the year 2000, an outstanding change within contemporary Chinese art occurred with the change in the management system in China. The rapid development of the contemporary art system brought tremendous momentum and capacity for artists to produce and exhibit art. A well planned investment into Chinese contemporary art is quite safe at the moment and the market shows no weakness in the future ahead. The market for Chinese contemporary art is extremely strong in many art communities all over the world. The most well-known and successful artists in the industry like Yeu Minjun, Cai Guoquiang and Ai Weiwei sell their art for millions of dollars all over the world. Many art collectors will even keep multiple works of Chinese contemporary art. The return of investment in the Chinese contemporary art market is relatively high and not only does it shows no signs of slowing down, it is actually still growing. Experts are forecasting the market to keep growing for the next ten years.

Moreover, global financial markets around the world reacting aggressively to the debt crisis in Europe and the U.S, inflation in China continuing to hit new highs and the real estate market remaining very volatile, Chinese investors are likely to maintain their preference for stability and long-term gain, this means we can predict more of these investors to join the groups of China's new collectors, who have increasingly driven sales at auction houses not only in mainland China but also Hong Kong, London and New York. Buyers who previously entered in solely on traditional Chinese art or antiques are now getting more involved in the Chinese contemporary art market in order to make their investment more secure.

Past performance of the art market (2005-2010):

The art market in general and Chinese art market in particular has experienced a massive crisis of confidence following the meltdown of the global financial industry in 2008. Investor's confidence level in the art market decreased due to concern over financial and economic development. However, despite the fall in the value of other markets, total sales of Chinese art market still raised by 7%, generating $60.8 billion. According to chief art critic at the Times, Rachel Campell- Johnson, investors from different nations were concerned about investing in safer markets such as Chinese and Hong Kong art market, which are particularly strong in the areas of contemporary and modern art.

Current state of the art market (2011 - now):

In 2011, the high-end market displayed an extraordinary dynamism. According to a report from Artprice.com, approximately 1,675 artworks were sold above the $1 million threshold representing a 32% increase of auction sales versus 2010 and an increase of 493% compared to the beginning of the decade. China posted by far the best national score with 774 pieces sold. Indeed, Hong Kong posted twice as many million-plus results as the entire Euro area. As a result, Chinese art market's total turnover reached 210.8 billion yuan (about $34 billion), representing an annual growth rate of 24%, the highest growth in the world art market.

In two consecutive years of 2011 and 2012, China successively overtook the UK's and then the US's position to become the world's biggest and fastest growing market for art and antiques, attracting buyers from all different nations. Latest figures show the global share of China rose to 30% based on both auction and dealer sales (Figure below).

Structure of the art market:

There are five primary participants in today's modern art market. These are the dealer, the critic, the auction house, the museum and the collector. The artist, who is also the physical originator of the art, participates the least over the transfer of one piece of art therefore is not included in the process of art trading. Normally, an art dealer (or a gallerist), who acts as a representative of the artist, introduces a piece of art to the public by setting a price for the artwork. Once it has been purchased in the primary market, it enters the secondary market. An artwork may go through several dealers, or an auction house like Sotheby's or Christie's, before reaching its next buyer. Whilst the dealer and the auction house serve as facilitators of the market, the critic and the museum act as market influencers. With approvals by these industry experts, the demand thus the price for an artist's work typically increases. Ultimately, the art piece is earned by market acquirers, including both private and corporate collectors.

Nowadays, the old system of physical auction rooms is increasingly being replaced by online sales. Some auction companies, including Christie's and Sotheby's, have developed online trading platforms since 2011which made Chinese art pieces, in particular, easier to purchase by collectors from all around the world.

Factors affecting demand and supply in the art market:

The price commanded for a piece of artwork is largely affected by the demand for the artwork itself. It varies based on the size of the work, the artist's reputation, the popularity of the dealer and the auction house or the message delivered. The demand also depends on the risks and returns associated with the art investments compared with other classes of investments. Moreover, different buyers are willing to pay differently depends on their knowledge, information, preference and valuation on the artwork. Once the price of the work increases, it reinforces the belief among acquirers that that artist is a good investment and will thereby place further upward pressure on demand. Other external forces such as politics and economic growth are also taken into account.

One important feature of the art market is that it is essentially supply-driven, with a limited amount of high quality art being produced by living artists and a limited amount of fine art being sold, each year. Consequently in such market, increased demand cannot necessarily raise supply and, instead, elevates prices, narrowing down the available offer to only extremely wealthy or well-connected collectors.

Role of public institutions and regularly policies:

Confidence in the Chinese contemporary art market looks increasingly fragile as the ArtTactic Chinese Art Market Confidence Indicator (AMCI) drops 35 percent from May 2012. The overall Confidence Indicator is now standing at 49, down from 76, which is the first time the AMCI has fallen below zero. This was due to two primary factors which are lower economic growth rate and China leadership transition. However, these factors are likely to be short-lived and will not have a strong impact to the future prospects of the market.

As most countries in the world including the US, the UK and other European countries are still on the recovery process from the financial crisis, Chinese art market is increasingly considered as a safe and attractive alternative market to global investors. Moreover, the Yuan currency is appreciating over the Euro and it may encourage speculative movement of Yuan assets including Chinese modern artworks which will result in a potential growth in this market.

Outlook of the future sector:

Sotheby's is a multinational corporation, originally English but now owned and headquartered in the United States, which is one of the world's largest auctioneers of fine and decorative art, jewellery, and collectibles. We will look at the sales of this firm in order to forecast the outlook for Chinese Art.

Despite global economic uncertainty, last year confirmed that art remains an attractive asset for High Net Worth Individuals who is looking for diversification and capital protection. However, it is currently at the high-end of the art market that one finds sufficient liquidity and demand. The confidence in the lower-to- middle -market ($50,000-$100,000 price range) remains weak.

Sotheby's and Christie's negative sales trends of Chinese art were also reflected in the two biggest Mainland auction houses' (China Guardian and Poly Auction) 2012 auction results. The overall result for the two is 52% lower than the peak of the Chinese art market in 2011. Market experts feel that the intervention by the Chinese government in 2012, on the back of allegations of tax avoidance with regards to import of art into Mainland China, has made the market nervous and kept buyers away from the auction rooms.

However, we can see the rising trend for Chinese art over the last decade while others stay the same as percentage showing the taste of global consumers favouring Chinese art works. Soon, Chinese regulation barrier may not affect the decision of High Net Worth collectors. Moreover, Chinese Arts may be relatively low risk which should be used for diversification. Both collectors and hedgers are keeping their eyes on Chinese art, there lies the great chance for a rebound in 2013.

Recommendations of artworks:

As the prospect of Chinese Art in 2013 has much potential, we recommend some artworks those are worthy to be acquired. Some are famously worthy and drew by famous artists which have high chance of being acquired by very High Net Worth collectors, others could be lower in price but must also be drew by famous artists. The reasons behind acquiring top artists' work is that artists' name and sign usually ensure the top quality of the art works and top quality items tend to increase in value even in a downward market. In a good market outlook, we may have enough potential return so we try as much as possible to reduce risks.




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