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市场效率之商业理财讲座的强势测试和行为金融,英国作业--英国论文代写范文精选

2016-03-09 | 来源:51Due教员组 | 类别:更多范文

51Due英国论文代写网精选assignment代写范文:"Strong-form tests",这篇论文主要描述的是股票市场里存在着一些内部交易,内部交易的存在会使股票的利润异常,内幕涉及到接触敏感信息的相关人员,不只是一个公司董事或者雇员,我们可以通过提高信息披露水平和禁止某些人在关键时刻买卖公司股份来阻止内幕发生。

•It is possible to trade shares on the basis of information not in the public domain and make abnormal profits

•Trading on inside knowledge is thought to be a ‘bad thing’

•Insider dealing is considered to be, besides dealing for oneself either counselling or procuring another individual to deal in the securities or communicating knowledge to any other person, while being aware that he or she (or someone else) will deal in those securities

•The term ‘insider’/dxygassignment covers anyone with sensitive information, not just a company director or employee

•Raise the level of information disclosure

•Prohibit certain individuals from dealing in the company’s shares for crucial time periods Behavioural finance

•Behavioural finance proponents argue that investors frequently make systematic errors and these errors can push the prices of shares away from fundamental value for considerable periods

•Behavioural finance models offer plausible reasoning for the phenomena we observe in the pattern of share prices

•They offer persuasive explanations for the outperformance of PER,high dividend yield and low book-to-market ratio shares as well as the poor performance of ‘glamour’shares

•They also shed light on both return reversal and momentum effects, stock market bubbles and irrational pessimism

The three lines of defence for EMH

1 Investors are rational and hence value securities rationally
2 Even if some investors are not rational, their irrationally inspired trades of securities are random and therefore the effects of their irrational actions cancel each other out without moving prices away from their efficient level
3 If the majority of investors are irrational in similar ways and therefore have a tendency to push security values away from the efficient level this will be countered by rationalarbitrageurs who eliminate the influence of the irrational traders on prices

Arbitrage

•Arbitrage is the act of exploiting price differences on the same security or similar securities by simultaneously selling the overpriced security and buying the underpriced security

•Perfect arbitrage: a profit without any risk at all (and even without money)

•To be effective the arbitrageur needs to be able to purchase or sell a close-substitute security

•For example you discover that Unilever’s shares are undervalued

•The risk of other fundamental factors influencing the shares of Unilever and P&G

•The risk that the irrational investors push irrationality to new heights

•Risk arbitrage’ and risk-free arbitrage

Some cognitive errors made by investors

•The combination of limited arbitrage and investor sentiment pushing the market leads to inefficient pricing
•Both elements are necessary
•Overconfidence
•Representativenes
•Conservatism
•Narrow framing
•Ambiguity aversion
•Positive feedback and extrapolative expectations
•Regret
•Confirmation bias
•Cognitive dissonance
•Availability bias
•Miscalculation of probabilities
•Anchoring

Misconceptions about the efficient market hypothesis

1 Any share portfolio will perform as well as or better than a special trading rule designed to outperform the market
2 There should be fewer price fluctuations
3 Only a minority of investors are actively trading, most are passive, therefore efficiency cannot be achieved

Implications of the EMH for investors

1 For the vast majority of people public information cannot be used to earn abnormal returns
2 Investors need to press for a greater volume of timely information
3 The perception of a fair game market could be improved by more constraints and deterrents placed on insider dealers

Implications of the EMH for companies

1 Focus on substance, not on short-term appearance

2 The timing of security issues does not have to be fine-tuned

3 Large quantities of new shares can be sold without moving the price

4 Signals from price movements should be taken seriously

Concluding comments

•Sophisticated stock markets are substantially efficient

•Question the assumption that all investors respond in a similar manner to the same risk and return factors and that these can be easily identified

•One way of ‘outperforming’ the market might be to select shares the attributes of which you dislike less than the other investors

•Another way is through luck

•Possessing superior analytical skills

•Through the discovery of a trading rule which works

•To be quicker than anyone else

•To become an insider

Lecture review

•Strong-form efficiency

•Insider dealing

•Behavioural finance studies

•Implications of the EMH for investors

•Implications of the EMH for companies

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