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发展中国家的汇率政策,英国作业--英国论文代写范文精选

2016-03-09 | 来源:51Due教员组 | 类别:更多范文

51Due英国论文代写网专注于论文代写,在论文写作方面积累了大量丰富的经验,以下文章精选51Due英国论文代写网assignment代写范文:《发展中国家的汇率政策》在现今发展中国家面前汇率体系是有多种可供选择的,如何选择适合自身的汇率政策呢?本文经过对固定汇率和浮动汇率进行详细对比之后,认为浮动汇率政策更适合现在的经济形势。

Exchange rate policies in developing countries

Exchange-rate strategies may be used to pursue the most varied objectives as instruments of development policy or of structural adjustment. The following essay will examine the number of exchange-rate policy options that are available to developing countries. Since the collapse of the international monetary system in 1973 which was based on a fixed exchange rate system, many developing countries today have a wide variety of alternative exchange rate systems available to them. However with this being said they are still faced with many issues such as increases in the balance of payments deficit, deterioration in terms of trade imbalances and thus negative export earnings as well as high unemployment and inflationary pressures.
To combat these structural imbalances it is important to have an exchange-rate regime in place. An exchange-rate regime (ERR) is defined by the "extent to which either government or market forces determine a countries exchange rates and the government can choose from a number of exchange-rate regime options".
The spectrum of exchange rate regimes consists of three main policies that constitutes" fixed regime (pegged exchange rates), Flexible regime (adjustable and flexible exchange rates" or between adjustable peg rates and rigidly fixed exchange rate system.
The floating exchange rate (managed float) system involves "currency markets as the main determinant of exchange rates, but the government, at its discretion, may influence the exchange rate by adjusting the money supply to raise or to lower interest rates or exchange rates or by intervening in currency markets. The government does not necessarily commit itself to an announced exchange rate target".
The case for floating exchange rates is that it achieves internal balance as well as external balance without having to intervene in domestic objectives. As the government does not have to interfere in the market to maintain exchange rate stability, it can control one of the internal aspects e.g. money supply so that high employment and inflation is sustained.
Current account deficits are automatically eliminated by changes in the market for foreign exchange and also policy makers have more monetary flexibility and independence. This is also beneficial for the economies as the adjustment will be less costly, and can vary in order to promote domestic changes.
Of the developing countries that have floated successfully and independently on a sustained level have been Lebanon and South Africa. These were the exceptions from the many that did join the floating exchange rate system due to an increase in balance of payments deficit.
In Lebanon "maintenance of a floating exchange rate was seen as part of the country's commitment to an open and commercially free environment for trade and in South Africa to float its currency, at a time of relative balance of payments strength, was influenced at least in part by the desire to improve conditions for monetary control"
The fixed exchange rate system comprises of the single-currency peg and multi-currency peg and implies "that the monetary authorities set the value of the domestic currency with reference to another currency, or a basket of currencies"
An obvious advantage of fixed exchange rates is that transaction costs within the monetary area will be lower. This will be much less true if there remains a separate currency with a currency board as opposed to using a foreign currency, and even where there is a single currency the experience of the euro indicates that the benefits can be slow in materializing, but the benefits are relatively certain.
Economists (e.g. Franklin 1999) customarily cite the provision of a nominal anchor as the other great benefit of a fixed exchange rate. They rely on the postulate of zero-degree homogeneity to argue that if one locks in the foreign price level by a fixed exchange rate, then this will guarantee that the domestic price level approaches a determine equilibrium level.
Fixed rates tend to stimulate international trade and especially foreign direct investment (FDI) as exchange rates stay on the same level, importers and exporters can trade without the problem of currency fluctuations in transactions. Furthermore fixed exchange rates make manufacturers more efficient i.e. they will be more aware to maintain the quality of the goods and services as well as keeping the costs of production down in order to stay competitive with international firms. The risk of inflation is greatly reduced and stabilises money supply within the economy. However a fixed exchange rate regime does impose one main disadvantage that being the high vulnerability of the system to speculative attacks. When a developing county e.g. Argentina experiences excess amount of demand and supply within their foreign currency and the central banks are unable to cover the gap between the existing resources and demand, this will reduce positive effects and decrease the credibility of the currency as rates will not change.
Though it could be said that "given the disadvantages of both permanently fixed and independently floating exchange rates, it is not surprising that many developing countries have tried various intermediate regimes in an effort to combine the advantages of the two systems"
There are two basic types: adjustable peg and crawling peg. "Under the adjustable peg system, the country undertakes an obligation to defend the peg, but reserves the right to alter the exchange rate to correct a fundamental disequilibrium. Under the crawling peg regime, the country undertakes an obligation to defend the peg, but either commits itself to moving the peg in small steps in accordance with a pre-announced rule-the rule-based crawling peg-or reserves the right to change the peg in steps which are small but discretionary in size and timing"
The underlying principle behind the adjustable peg system and why many developing countries have implemented this system is that it secures exchange rate stability and avoids changes in the exchange rate in response to shocks and provision of inflationary measures.
The main issue with the adjustable peg and is often criticised for is that it leads to delayed response and adjustment of the exchange rate. This results in governments having to control balance of payments with a fixed exchange rate for a prolonged period. This has adverse implications for macroeconomic balances.
A crawling peg system allows "As far as internal and external balance are concerned, the advantage of crawling is that corrective changes in the nominal exchange rate are carried out frequently and automatically and real exchange rate misalignments arising out of differential rates of inflation are not allowed to build up. It allows a country to have a different inflation rate from its trading partners without adverse effects on output, clearly a consideration of great importance in countries which have a history of rapid inflation "
My conclusion from an informal point of view is that floating exchange rates have a strong advantage over fixed exchange rates, at least in the absence of common currencies.
In this current climate, where we have witnessed the growing economic, political and social integration of developing countries as well as rapid development of international trade and economic specialization, the advantages of a fixed exchange rate regime in relation to other systems do not sufficiently cover the losses. Developing countries still have the problem of a weak banking system as well as poor economic policy and so I believe that a floating exchange rate system are the choice, as it brings about economic stability, as well as flexibility and monetary and fiscal independence to a large extent.

Many international economists believe that the future is promising and there may be greater perspectives for those countries whose financial system is based on the floating exchange rate system as the risks of instability will be eliminated. The level of financial liberty can be different for different regions of the world, and the policies that can lead them to economical growth can also be different, but the general belief is that the flexible exchange rate system offers better opportunities for successful economical development than fixed exchange rate system.


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